As the 2020 year and subsequent election loom ever closer, it seems not a day goes by without a new poll being released on the possible outcomes. Most of those consider which Democratic presidential candidate has the current support and, therefore which is most likely to win the DNC’s nomination.
For most of the race, three have ruled supreme, but according to a recent trend in polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire, there could be a significant change on the horizon.
“The Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll of 255 likely Democratic primary voters shows that Buttigieg, supported by 25 percent, now holds a 10 percentage point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who are tied for second at 15 percent. Buttigieg is substantially ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is in fourth place at 9 percent.”
We have no doubts this poll is somewhat of an outlier, especially considering, as Nate Silver says, “that New Hampshire poll you’re all tweeting about has a sample size of only 255 voters.”
However, we can’t help but notice that there is definitely a trend moving in that direction. Buttigieg has been squarely in fourth place for quite a few of the last several polls. In fact, in a Quinnipiac New Hampshire poll last week, he was even in third place, beating out Bernie Sanders. And if we add this new St Anselm poll into Real Clear Politics average, they have Mayor Pete ahead of Sanders as well.
The early voting state of Iowa also shows this trend. A CNN poll taken there has Buttigieg leading everyone by at least nine points. This one might also be an outlier, but it still proves a point. Even CBS has noted his recent success and places him only a few points below both Sanders and Biden.
This brings us to a rather sharp change in how those he is possibly beating out will communicate with and about him. Up until this point, it has been pretty much all roses for Buttigieg. As the first and only openly gay candidate, there is much trepidation about attacking him or his policies too harshly.
But as he continues on this upward surge, his opponents are likely to forget about this somewhat. And as a result, they could be sabotaging their own campaigns. Having both male and female, white and minority candidates in the race already opens the door for accusations of misogyny and racism to be thrown about. But now, with Buttigieg, candidates could quite easily be labeled as homophobic or worse.
Now questions of his sexuality are unlikely to come up in the Democratic debates or one on one interviews, but it doesn’t mean that no one is considering it. In fact, it is this exact issue that brings just about any uncertainty to his campaign.
It has been noted by several political experts that people like Buttigieg for his more moderate or centrist approach. The reason he is doing so well is that not everyone is ready for the progressive policies many of his opponents have proposed.
However, his open sexuality causes many to hesitate. Even in the Democrat Party, many voters may not be as woke as they would have you believe.
Politico recently polled on the idea of whether people are open to the idea of having a gay or lesbian president. For most, the openness is there… but “58 percent of Republicans, 32 percent of independents and 22 percent of Democrats say they aren’t ready.”
Morning Consult conducted a similar survey, but instead of asking whether they were ready or not, the question was if their neighbors were. Facts show that when people are asked about their own viewpoints, they are sometimes uncomfortable about letting it known. However, when they are asked about their neighbors might think about the same thing, their own opinions tend to be projected.
The survey reported that only about a quarter said they were ok with a gay couple in the White House, while almost half said that “their neighbors” weren’t ready.
This doesn’t seem to display high hopes for Buttigieg, even if he is rising in the polls. Plus, we can’t forget about his near non-existent support from the African-American population. Even if we won the nomination with his white supporters, the odds that he would win in a general election against Trump are slim to none at this point.