Donald Trump skeptics may have believed that Minnesota was going to remain blue this election but things have started to shift in an unexpected manner. Emerson polls show that Biden’s lead in Minnesota is starting to dwindle. He’s got a 50-47 lead and 3 percent of voters are still undecided. Minnesota has become competitive once again.
The voters are split when it comes to mail-in voting and in-person voting. It probably won’t surprise anyone to learn that 90 percent of mail-in voters are pledging their support to Joe Biden. Meanwhile, nearly 70 percent of in-person voters are going to casting their ballots for Trump. These results should not be taken as the gospel truth but they are interesting, nonetheless.
The results are not believed to be a major outlier at the moment. The Emerson poll results are in line with the Trafalgar poll results that were discussed a couple weeks ago. Emerson has a closer link with the GOP as well. Their poll comes with a much larger sample size and they are also providing some further insight about the upcoming Senate race.
Interim appointment Tina Smith is being challenged by former Representative Jason Lewis. From the looks of things, he is well within range and can pull off the upset if things keep heading in this direction. Spencer Kimball is the Director of the Emerson College Poll and he thinks that the state may follow the same patterns from 2016 this year.
“In 2016, the Senate races in each state were won by the same party that won the Presidential election in that state, and it appears that the same pattern might emerge in 2020,” said Kimball. If the Republicans were able to take home a victory in either race, it would qualify as a massive upset. Many political pundits had already assumed that the state would go blue across the board.
Minnesota has been staunchly blue for some time now, as Republicans have been unable to win a statewide election in this state since 2006. Over the past 14 years, none of these races have even been close. Some might point out the 2016 presidential race. The only reason that these numbers were close is because of Hillary Clinton’s inability to reach the same voters that turned out for Barack Obama.
Trump added a small number of votes from the Mitt Romney 2012 totals but Hillary lost nearly 200,000 votes over the same time period. If Emerson and Trafalgar are to be believed, the Republicans have a better chance of taking one of these races in November than we originally thought. These polls are showing that there is more opposition to the defunding of the police than many of us had assumed.
The push has not led to positive results and Minneapolis has been experiencing an increase in wave over the past few months. The Republican candidates in this state may be able to benefit from this, as there are a number of citizens who are wondering if they are going to remain protected. The Democrats cannot promise anything, so they have decided to look elsewhere.
This is going to be an intriguing year for Minnesota elections, no matter how you slice it. This state may not have reached battleground status yet but we are going to be keeping our eye on it. The Democrats cannot make the mistake of assuming that this state will remain in their clutches. They may need to make some changes, so that they can shore up their standing in any states like this one.
The ‘defund the police’ simply isn’t as popular as the Democrats wanted everyone to think. Even Joe Biden is running scared from this movement and it won’t be long before he’s backtracking on everything that he said. He’s let the party know that he won’t drift too far to the left and the choice of Kamala Harris as a running mate will assuage a lot of fears.